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Xiao Jian’s Column: Real-time observation and commentary on AI/AGI/ASI

On May 1st, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that eight companies—OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Nvidia, SpaceX, Reflection, and Oracle—could enter IL6/IL7 classified networks, with only Anthropic missing. The reason is not a lack of capability, but Anthropic's refusal to accept the "any lawful purpose" clause, unwilling to hand over red lines regarding autonomous weapons and large-scale surveillance. In the same week, Anthropic secured $40 billion from Google but was listed as a "Supply Chain Risk" by the Pentagon, with the CTO stating on the same day that Mythos is a separate issue. This is not a contract dispute; it is a battle of paradigms.

The financial figures from the past week tell us more directly where the AGI game stands than any model benchmark score. For the first time, OpenAI has been reported by its own insiders to have missed internal revenue and user targets, with even the CFO disagreeing with the CEO in internal memos. In the same week, Anthropic secured $40 billion from Google, receiving backing from all four major tech giants. With the AGI clause removed from contracts, cash flow has become the real judge. Based on these figures, I discuss how this game is shifting.